Farm Gate to Fork

News, views, discussion and analysis of farming and food issues along the supply chain.

Global Corn Soy Production Growing – Wheat Falling

corn picLatest forecasts from the USDA predict that the US, Argentina, South Africa and the EU are all expected to have larger crops of maize this year.

This growth in production in these countries will force up global corn production, according to the latest Grain World Markets and Trade report from the USDA.

Greater demand for animal feed in China is also expected to raise global consumption of corn.

However, while the EU and China will be driving trade, the USDA expects import demand to be slightly down.

Global ending stocks are also forecast to be down slightly because the amount that China will be taking out of stocks will offset any build-up of stocks in the US.

While corn production is on the rise, wheat production is expected to be lower this year, 2016/2017 following the record production last year.

However, production is still outstripping consumption for the fourth year in a row, the USDA says.

Production is falling in the EU, Morocco, Turkey and Ukraine, but Russia and Argentina will see rises in wheat production this year.

There is expected to be a growth in consumption of food grade wheat, which will offset any drop in consumption of feed grade wheat.

The EU is expected to remain the largest exported of wheat although global trade is expected to fall.

Global trade is down very slightly from the 2015/16 record. The EU is forecast to be the world’s largest exporter for the fourth straight year.

Global stocks are projected to an all-time high, driven primarily by China. Rice production is projected at a new record, with significant increases for South and Southeast Asia and the United States. Consumption is forecast to rise moderately.

Trade is projected lower as improved crops in importing countries reduce demand.

Global oilseed supplies are expected to be up by just one per cent this year.

Soybean production is expected to grow by more than two per cent to 8.3 million tonnes as production rises in Brazil and China and India sees production growth return.

The USDA says that the growth in these countries will offset the falls in production in the US and Canada.

Soybean meal trade is forecast to expand, driven by strong demand in the EU and Southeast Asia. Soybean oil trade is expected to slow, largely on India’s shrinking demand due to forecast rebound in domestic oilseeds production and crush and forecast increase in global palm oil supplies.

Production of copra, cottonseed and sunflower seed are expected to bounce back this year, offsetting lower output in global peanut and rapeseed crops.

Global oilseed demand is also predicted to rise slightly more than last year.

The soybean crush is forecast to grow by four per cent, while other oilseed crush is forecast to grow at a relatively slower pace in the coming year although the rapeseed crush.

Total soybean demand is expected to grow in 2016/17.

Crop reductions in the United States and Canada are forecast to be more than offset by gains in South America, India, and China.


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This entry was posted on May 11, 2016 by in Grains, Uncategorized and tagged , , , , , .
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